Fernando Alonso comes to Monza with all eyes on him and his Ferrari to do the business as the Italian crowd will be urging his car around the track. At 4/1 with Paddy Power to win, he will certainly need the points as he stands 41 points adrift of Championship leader Lewis Hamilton, himself the 19/10 fav to win the race (Boylesports). Nowhere else do you get the same level of fervent support for one team and now Ferrari have escaped further punishment for illegal race orders, there may be an extra level of optimism within the camp.
Monza is a fast circuit, up to 75% spent at full throttle, which could play right into McClaren’s hands. Hamilton will be very hard to beat but Mark Webber will be giving it his all in his Red Bull, 7/1 with 888sport to win the race, but the RB6 car is expected to be outpaced this weekend. Seb Vettel just hasn’t shown enough to quality out on the track to be considered a very serious challenger and his 11/2 with Skybet should probably be traded with Webber’s odds.
Force India and Mercedes will be looking to get decent points on the board with a speed-based race, Sutil (Force India) and Rosberg (Mercedes) should both be pushing for the top 6 – 4/5 and 11/4 respectively (both Ladbrokes). A bit further afield, Liuzzi (Force India) is a decent 1/1 with Coral to finish inside the top 10, backed up by quick previous drives here. He has had repeated car trouble but managed a 10th position last time out in Belgium, despite this.
Alonso has it all to do to beat Hamilton and stay in the title hunt and this is perhaps one of his better opportunities. 3/4 at William Hill about an Alonso podium finish is a pretty solid bet, while it’s hard to pick between Webber, Vettel and Button for 3rd place.