England are 11/10 with William Hill to win and level the series at 1-1 and perhaps the confidence about the Aussies has just got a touch too high.
The teams are still very very even at this level and it took a last over effort for Australia to overhaul England’s total, even with Watson’s 161 not out. The rest of the squad did not perform that brilliantly and if, and it’s an if, England can skittle Watson earlier, the complexion of the entire match will change.
With the news that Matt Prior will go to the World Cup instead of Davies, Prior is expected to play but it’s Ian Bell that can hit a top score – he is 11/2 with bet365. Graeme Swann drops out but Steve Finn looks quite a good bet at 4/1 to grab the most wickets for England (William Hill).
In the Australia camp, the loss of Mitchell Johnson has evened things up in the injury stakes and it’s Cameron White who can provide the fireworks this time – he is 6/1 (Betfred) to top score for the hosts.
England can win this as outsiders, even with an inexperienced bowling attack, and remind Australia they have work to do if they are to defend their ODI World title.