This match is possibly the biggest game of the tournament so far and could exceed the final in terms of local interest; fans rioted as tickets sold out and MS Dhoni (India’s wicketkeeper) suggested it could be bigger than the final for the Indian people.
Pakistan’s odds, 2.6 (8/5) at Betdaq, must surely be a touch high considering they have played with so much apparent confidence since losing to NZ four matches ago and the fact that it is a cup final situation, in terms of pride and passion.
Down at Mohali, pace bowling will be key. In the last 9 matches, 105 of 137 wickets have been from pace bowlers and just 29 have come from spin. For that reason, Umar Gul is preferred at 7/2 () to get the most Indian wickets for Pakistan (over the 11/4 fav Afridi, Ladbrokes) and for the hosts, India, Zaheer Khan could have some joy, he is 11/4 with 888sport.
Sehwag predictably failed against the Aussies but is 4/1 to top score for India here (888sport) while Tendulkar is predictably 3/1 fav with Coral but slight preference is for Sehwag to swashbuckle a top score. Yuvraj Singh is an interesting 6/4 at Paddy Power to hit another 50+, something he has done four times in six innings.
Asad Shafiq is the choice for Pakistan and if he plays at number 3, could be overpriced at 5/1 with Boylesports to top knock.
On a batting track that could be quite significantly affected by later dew, the toss could make a difference. Ladbrokes will give you evens on either team winning it and should Pakistan win the coin throw, they will bat first and their odds should shorten. This match is surely closer than the odds suggest and we are willing to side with Pakistan, the underdogs.