Only Leicester in the top half of the Championship lost more away games than Swansea during the regular season while, alongside champions QPR, Nottingham Forest suffered the fewest home defeats so it’s perhaps not surprising that Billy Davies’ side have been installed as 2.4 (7/5, Betdaq) favourites as they prepare to lock horns at the City Ground in the pair’s Championship play-off semi-final first leg.
Both teams have a reputation for keeping things tight and over the course of the season the pair’s defences have been amongst the meanest statistically. Accordingly, bookies believe that a low-scoring affair is likely and also influencing their thinking is the fact that both teams might be a touch cautious, hoping not to undo all of their hard work over the season, in just one match.
However, counterintuitive as it may sound, it may be worth backing the match at 5/4 (William Hill) to produce more than 2.5 goals as both teams have been scoring with encouraging regularity of late. Forest struck 14 times in their last four games while Swansea notched ten in three and the hosts will be keen to get amongst the goals at home knowing that the Jacks have an incredible defensive record at the Liberty Stadium, where they have conceded just eleven goals in 23 matches.
Over 2.5 goals – 5/4 (William Hill)