Paul Ferguson brings us his antepost thoughts about the Cesarewitch and in particular Biographer (20/1). Compare odds and bet.
With today’s action looking rather average even by a Monday’s standard and the fact our last ante-post selection was successful (Rebel Fitz @ 16/1) I thought I would take the opportunity to have an early look ahead to the Cesarewitch at Newmarket next month.
Beaten Ebor favourite Motivado currently heads the betting along with impressive York winner Olympiad and, while the former should relish the longer trip, he could easily find himself towards the head of the weights if just a couple above him come out. And, Dermot Weld stated after his York victory that Olympiad could be aimed at a Listed race next, so he is far from a certain starter.
The next pair (priced at 14/1) are I Have A Dream and Montaser, the latter represents 2009 winning trainer David Simcock and he’s an unexposed sort over this sort of trip. He could easily be in the shake up if making the cut, but would need a few to drop out to ensure he made the line-up. The former is interesting as Aidan O’Brien took the effort to enter him for the Melbourne Cup and he also holds entries in Group 3s including the staying event on Champions Day at Newmarket.
He was all out to win at Leopardstown on Saturday, but he looks to have more to offer once upped to this sort of trip. Again, it is difficult to weigh up whether or not he’ll make the line-up and, at the prices, I’d rather take a chance on another three-year-old who, in my opinion, is a much more likely starter.
Biographer has been selected in this column on a couple of occasions, most recently when winning a shade cosily under a fine Ted Durcan ride at Ffos Las in early August.
The Montjeu colt then chased home Guarantee (a horse many of you will know I’m a huge fan of, winning three times for us this season) in the Melrose at York and that represents high-class form in the context of this event.
The winner now heads to the St Leger (a race the selection held an entry in until only recently) and the front pair look Group class performers of the future. If that is to be the case, Biographer needs to be going close here off a mark of 99; with his weight-for-age allowance he’ll be running off a theoretical mark of 87 and, with the prospect of further improvement now he steps up to 2m and beyond, he looks very well in.
Three-year-olds have a fine record in this race of late too; aside from the aforementioned 2009 winner Darley Sun, Colour Vision finished third in the race last year (the only runner of his age group) and Askar Tau finished fourth in 2008. In all, six three-year-olds have contested the Cesarewitch since 2008 with one winning and two being placed.
All we need now is for David Lanigan to give him the go-ahead, but he has sporting connections so I expect him to line up and, if he does, there’s no way he should be 20/1 (current best price).
With that in mind, he is certainly worth taking a chance on and, for those only wanting to back him to win at this stage (I’m not always a fan of an each-way ante-post bet when a horse is not a certain runner and NRNB is not available), there was a few quid available at 28’s and 27’s on Betfair last night.
Others to note are Countrywide Flame who hasn’t been seen since chasing home Grumeti in the Grade 1 Anniversary 4YO Hurdle at Aintree, which followed his Triumph Hurdle victory. He remains potentially well in on the Flat and would be of interest on the day if he gets in and there’s cut in the ground, while at bigger odds Western Prize (currently 33/1) is worth a mention on a line through Montaser. He flopped behind Olympiad last time (in a race Countrywide Flame was a Non-Runner incidentally) but remains a fairly unexposed stayer.
Monday’s selection:
Ante-Post (Cesarewitch) Biographer 20/1 Ladbrokes / Stan James
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Last Year’s Book Results – Leading Prospects:
- SPRINTER SACRE – Unbeaten – winner at Aintree & Cheltenham
- SIMONSIG – Winner at Aintree & Cheltenham
- CINDERS AND ASHES – 10/1 winner of Supreme Novices Hurdle
- BOBS WORTH – 9/2 winner of the RSA Chase
- MENORAH & SILVINIACO CONTI – Both Aintree Winners
- SIR DES CHAMPS – Unbeaten inc 3/1 Jewson Cheltenham Winner
- FINGAL BAY – Won 4 times inc Challow Hurdle
- RAYA STAR – 10/3 winner at Wetherby, 12/1 Ladbroke Hurdle winner, 15/2 Scottish Champion Hurdle winner
- AMBION WOOD – 14/1 EBF Final Sandown winner
- CHAMPION COURT – 6/1 G2 Dipper Novices Chase winner
- PALACE JESTER – 14/1 winner at FFos Las
- SWINCOMBE FLAME – Hat-trick winner inc Lanzarote Hurdle at 9/2
- TEAFOR THREE – 5/1 NH Cheltenham Chase winner (Manifesto Novices’ Chase)
