Brazil have enjoyed their fair share of good fortune on their way to the World Cup semi-finals but some will argue that their luck has already shown signs of changing as they prepare to face Germany in Belo Horizonte.
For starters, star man Neymar will sit out the contest having suffered a back injury in the last eight contest against Colombia and at the other end, skipper Thiago Silva will be ruled out through suspension after receiving a crucial second yellow card of the tournament in Fortaleza.
This double blow accounts for a shift in the outright betting with the hosts now third favourites at 11/4 with Stan James, behind bet365’s 13/5 chances Argentina and Germany at 13/5 via Skybet. The Netherlands meanwhile, are a 4/1 shot at BetVictor.
There’s little between the teams there and the same could be said of the Brazilians and Germans respective odds to reach the final, bet365 rating both teams at 10/11 and William Hill chalking Luis Felipe Scolari’s team at a slightly heftier even money.
More accurately, Ladbrokes go 4/1 about a score draw and it’s 11/2 courtesy of Winner.com to end one-each but shouldering far less expectation than their depleted opponents, Joachim Low’s team might just have the edge.
In attack, Fred has so far been pretty ineffectual for Brazil, who will hope he can make more of an impact now that Neymar is missing and the Fluminense man is 15/2 (bet365) to break the deadlock. Promising to fill the void left by Neymar, Chelsea’s Willian is 16/1 with BetVictor to open the scoring and German schemer Thomas Muller is quoted by Ladbrokes at 7/1.
Germany to beat Brazil by a one-goal margin – 7/2 (Ladbrokes)