Though we’re bombarded with them, there’s one statistical trend which, season-in, season-out, remains consistently accurate: the number of goals scored in the final ten minutes of a match is, by some distance, much greater than those scored during any other ten-minute period.
But how useful is this to punters?
Bet365 report that the popularity of their ‘total goal minutes’ market has grown markedly over the past few seasons as people anticipate late goals. Ahead of Dundee’s duel against Aberdeen on Saturday, the firm quote 11/10 against the total exceeding 130, while Paddy Power post even money about the game’s final goal coming after the 72nd minute.
Most backers would expect the majority of goals in this fixture to be scored by Aberdeen, who kick off as Betway’s 5/4 jollies, particularly as the Dark Blues (21/10, Skybet) failed to beat them in four attempts when they last met in 2012-13.
St Johnstone, who beat St Mirren 2-0 in last season’s corresponding fixture, have now lost only two of their previous nine league contests with Saturday’s opponents. Accordingly, the men from Love Street arrive at McDiarmid Park priced as BetVictor’s 3/1 outsiders to secure victory. Stan James chalk 11/4 against the stalemate. Punters expecting the Perthshire Saints to keep the Paisley Saints at bay can get 9/1 (bet365) against the home side winning 2-0.
Form guides went out of the window when Partick and Motherwell met last term. After the Steelmen won the pair’s first league encounter 1-0, the duo went on to produce 13 goals between them in their next two league contests.
As they enjoy home advantage, Partick kick off as Ladbrokes’ 6/4 favourites for Saturday’s renewal, but perhaps the most obvious punt is the one that backs plenty of goals – Skybet quote 10/11 against it yielding more than 2.5 goals.
It could be a different tale in Inverness when Thistle welcome Ross County, who secured their first win of the campaign last weekend.
Indeed, backers persuaded by the value of the ‘last ten minute’ stat may fancy the look of BetVictor’s 6/4 for the opening half of this one to finish goalless, or of Skybet’s 11/10 marked in favour of the second half being the highest-scoring of the two.
The pair’s last three meetings have each ended in away victories: Ross are 11/2 (Stan James) to register back-to-back victories.
Total goal minutes in Dundee v Aberdeen over 130 – 11/10 (bet365)
St Johnstone, Celtic & Partick treble – 21/5 (Ladbrokes)
Partick v Motherwell to produce over 2.5 goals – 10/11 (Skybet)
Ross County to beat Inverness – 11/2 (Stan James)