Paul Ferguson has three selections for us on Friday; Durston in the York 14:40, Good Birthday 13:50 and Outbox 15:00 both at Newmarket. Compare odds and bet.
At Newmarket, two Royal Ascot winning juveniles go head-to-head in the Duchess of Cambridge Stakes, but from a betting perspective, the two valuable handicaps – which sandwich that Group 2 – make more appeal.
The opening Bet365 sponsored contest sees 16 to go to post and despite finishing down the field at Ascot last time, Good Birthday (1:50) looks worthy of each-way support, judged on his earlier form (available at 8-1 at the time of writing).
A smooth winner on reappearance at Doncaster, he went on to finish a sound third behind French Group 2 winner Headman, in a typically-competitive renewal of the London Gold Cup at Newbury. He had several of today’s rivals in behind on that occasion and could never get on terms, when stepped up in trip for the King George V Stakes last time. He still finished in front of Sir Ron Priestley, who came out and won at Haydock on Saturday, and he looks capable of going close for Andrew Balding and King Power Racing.
The Bet365 Trophy looks even more competitive, but I like two here, including market leader Ben Vrackie, who is ahead of his mark, with this being an early closing race. He came from way off the pace to finish a narrow second in Ascot’s Duke of Edinburgh Stakes (very strong piece of form) and would have carried 4lbs more here, had the race been framed this week.
If he gets away on terms (has been slowly away in the past, too) he looks sure to run a big race and has been threatening to win a race of this nature for some time now.
Purely as he’s a bigger price (available at 9-1 at the time of writing), I will slightly favour Outbox (3:00) each-way, although I could be persuaded to split stakes, if the prices are right on Friday morning (several firms are likely to push horses out in this race, given the strength in depth). Simon Crisford’s four-year-old lost his unbeaten record on his recent return – in Listed company in France – and can be expected to improve with that run under his belt, and also with the likely strong pace likely to prove more beneficial.
The son of Frankel looked most progressive last season and the form of his Newbury win in October now reads well. The pair are drawn side-by-side and should be able to grab a nice position from their low stalls.
Up at York, Durston (2:40) is fancied to complete the hat-trick in the William Hill Leading Racecourse Bookmaker Handicap.
The sole three-year-old in the line-up, David Simcock’s improving Sea The Moon colt has flourished since entering handicap company, winning over an extended 1m6f at Doncaster, before coping with the drop in distance at Chester. He came from last-to-first last time, to win what looked a competitive race with plenty in hand and a 6lb rise seems more than fair.
Conditions should suit, although any overnight rain certainly wouldn’t be unwelcome, and if he is wins again, it could be that he returns here for the Melrose on Ebor day.
Friday’s selections:
1:50 Newmarket – Good Birthday; 8/1 Ladbrokes
2:40 York – Durston; 13/8 BetVictor
3:00 Newmarket – Outbox; 7/1 Bet365
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NB. All odds shown are correct at time of publishing and are subject to change.
