• Thu 29 Sep, 2022
  • 11:54 BST
  • 07:54 EST (BST-4)
  • 13:54 CEST (BST+2)

Four to follow on Tuesday

A 30% chance of a shower during racing this afternoon at Ayr where conditions were described as a mix of good and good to soft on Monday morning.

Love De Vega is likely to have traded very short in the run when he took up the running at the furlong pole at Ascot last time only to fade close home into third. Jason Hart takes over in the saddle this afternoon on Mark Johnston’s lightly raced 3-y-old who can race from the same mark today. He is well drawn for one who can race prominently, and he could easily make all.

JUMP THE GUN can be slowly away which often compromises his chance, but he would surely have finished in the places in the Ayr Silver Cup here earlier in the month had he not met trouble in running. The winning time of the Silver Cup was a second quicker than the Gold Cup and the selection is, arguably, a better horse over today’s additional furlong.

Iain Jardine’s 5-y-old may need luck in running from what is a good draw in stall four, but Ryan Sexton takes over in the saddle taking off a valuable 5lbs and we know the top-weight remains in good heart. Abduction won over track and trip last time on his first start for Jim Goldie and a 2lbs rise looks fair.

Recommendation: 2.54 Ayr – Jump The Gun

Jedd O’Keefe has had a quiet time of things in recent weeks, but the hope is that SCOTTISH DANCER can get off the mark in the concluding two-mile handicap. There is plenty of stamina in his pedigree and he improved for the step up to two miles for the first time when second at Newcastle last time to a subsequent facile hurdles’ winner with the third nine lengths further back.

The selection receives 9lbs weight-for-age allowance from his elders this afternoon and I would be disappointed if he couldn’t transfer his recent improvement on tapeta to the turf.

Recommendation: 5.10 Ayr – Scottish Dancer

A competitive turn out for the Paul Ferguson Jumpers To Follow Novices’ Handicap Chase. Any jumps fans not familiar with the publication could do worse than avail themselves to what is an excellent well researched read.

KINONDO KWETU had just half a length in hand of the admirable Judge Earl at Uttoxeter last time and meets that rival on 2lbs worse terms, but I thought he was good value for the margin of victory and today’s additional distance – do not additional distances of all advertised races due to rail movements – should see him confirm the form.

The selection is unbeaten in two starts over fences and had to wait for the gaps to appear to make his challenge going to the last in Staffordshire and I think he is best followed until tasting defeat. The selection has been put in as the 7/4 market leader with William Hill, but I would be surprised if there was not 2/1 or slightly bigger available when other firms come out with their prices.

There is more to come from Trixster this term, but he doesn’t have a great record fresh, and Tim Vaughan has been relatively quiet over the summer.

Recommendation: 2.26 Southwell – Kinondo Kwaku

THE QUESTIONER won back-to-back 3m handicap hurdles back in the spring and made a pleasing comeback from a five-month lay-off when beaten 5L at Uttoxeter earlier in the month. Today’s additional yardage will suit Toby Wynne’s mount and do note the extra 320 yards which should be added to the 3m 60y of the contest due to the rail movements.

The selection looks a thorough stayer and is only 4lbs higher than when scoring over C&D back in March. Oliver Greenall and Josh Guerriero have their string in good form at the moment and have four good chances on the card. I think this might be the pick of them.

Recommendation: 5.16 Southwell – The Questioner

Be lucky

Charlie

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